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Viktoria Herxheim vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
9/11/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Herxheim Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim27%
×Draw22%
TuS Koblenz51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Herxheim
1.43
TuS Koblenz
2.04

TuS Koblenz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 60 away

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim
1.53
TuS Koblenz
1.85

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim
2.24
TuS Koblenz
1.33

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw
49%
Viktoria Herxheim or TuS Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
73%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
12%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
76%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
17%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
87%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
60%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
34%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

TuS Koblenz attack 1.85 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more
27%
level
22%
TuS Koblenz scores more
51%

TuS Koblenz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Viktoria Herxheim 1–2 TuS Koblenz

TuS Koblenz beat Viktoria Herxheim 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Herxheim Rasenplatz 1 in Herxheim.