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TuS Koblenz vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
12/7/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

TuS Koblenz68%
×Draw17%
Viktoria Herxheim14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Koblenz
2.48
Viktoria Herxheim
1.04

TuS Koblenz creates 138% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 17 away

creates per match

TuS Koblenz
1.97
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

TuS Koblenz
0.97
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

TuS Koblenz+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Koblenz ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

TuS Koblenz or draw
86%
TuS Koblenz or Viktoria Herxheim
83%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
32%

Winning margin

TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
46%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
92%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
70%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
44%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
65%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
28%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
83%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Koblenz at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Koblenz attack 1.97 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.48

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + TuS Koblenz defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

TuS Koblenz scores more
68%
level
17%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
14%

TuS Koblenz at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS Koblenz 3–0 Viktoria Herxheim

TuS Koblenz beat Viktoria Herxheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.