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Viktoria Herxheim vs Schott Mainz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
3/29/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 24Herxheim Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim17%
×Draw18%
Schott Mainz64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Herxheim
1.19
Schott Mainz
2.44

Schott Mainz creates 105% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim
1.53
Schott Mainz
2.63

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim
2.24
Schott Mainz
0.85

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw
36%
Viktoria Herxheim or Schott Mainz
82%
Draw or Schott Mainz
83%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
7%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
33%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
12%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
91%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
70%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
21%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + Schott Mainz defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Schott Mainz attack 2.63 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more
17%
level
18%
Schott Mainz scores more
64%

Schott Mainz at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Viktoria Herxheim 0–2 Schott Mainz

Schott Mainz beat Viktoria Herxheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Herxheim Rasenplatz 1 in Herxheim.