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Schott Mainz vs Viktoria Herxheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
9/14/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Mz-Mombach BSA KR1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Schott Mainz83%
×Draw11%
Viktoria Herxheim7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schott Mainz
3.39
Viktoria Herxheim
0.90

Schott Mainz creates 277% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 17 away

creates per match

Schott Mainz
3.78
Viktoria Herxheim
1.12

allows per match

Schott Mainz
0.67
Viktoria Herxheim
3.00

finishing

Schott Mainz+0.00on par
Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schott Mainz ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Schott Mainz or draw
93%
Schott Mainz or Viktoria Herxheim
89%
Draw or Viktoria Herxheim
17%

Winning margin

Schott Mainz wins by 2+
65%
Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Schott Mainz 1+ goals
96%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
84%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
64%
Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
59%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
23%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
93%
Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schott Mainz at home — creates 3.78, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schott Mainz attack 3.78 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.39

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Schott Mainz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Schott Mainz scores more
83%
level
11%
Viktoria Herxheim scores more
7%

Schott Mainz at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Schott Mainz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Schott Mainz 4–0 Viktoria Herxheim

Schott Mainz beat Viktoria Herxheim 4-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Mz-Mombach BSA KR1 in Mainz-Mombach.