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Viktoria Herxheim vs Pirmasens — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Viktoria Herxheim
Viktoria Herxheim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pirmasens
Pirmasens
11/30/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 19Herxheim Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim23%
×Draw20%
Pirmasens57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Herxheim
1.39
Pirmasens
2.29

Pirmasens creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim
1.53
Pirmasens
2.35

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim
2.24
Pirmasens
1.25

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par
Pirmasens+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

Pirmasens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw
43%
Viktoria Herxheim or Pirmasens
80%
Draw or Pirmasens
77%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+
10%
Pirmasens wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals
75%
Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals
40%
Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals
16%
Pirmasens 1+ goals
90%
Pirmasens 2+ goals
66%
Pirmasens 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)
28%
Pirmasens (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Pirmasens away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + Pirmasens defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Pirmasens attack 2.35 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more
23%
level
20%
Pirmasens scores more
57%

Pirmasens at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Pirmasens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Herxheim vs Pirmasens

Pirmasens beat Viktoria Herxheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Herxheim Kunstrasenplatz in Herxheim.