Pirmasens 3–1 Viktoria Herxheim: Result & Stats

Pirmasens

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Viktoria Herxheim

8/11/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 2Sportpark Husterhöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pirmasens76%

×Draw14%

Viktoria Herxheim10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PirmasensExpected goals in this matchViktoria Herxheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.01

Pirmasens

2.98

Viktoria Herxheim

1.01

Pirmasens creates 195% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 17 away

2.95

creates per match

1.12

0.90

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Pirmasens

2.95

Viktoria Herxheim

1.12

allows per match

Pirmasens

0.90

Viktoria Herxheim

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirmasens+0.00on par

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirmasens ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Pirmasens or draw

90%

Pirmasens or Viktoria Herxheim

86%

Draw or Viktoria Herxheim

24%

Winning margin

Pirmasens wins by 2+

56%

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pirmasens 1+ goals

95%

Pirmasens 2+ goals

79%

Pirmasens 3+ goals

56%

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals

64%

Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals

27%

Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Pirmasens (draw refunded)

88%

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirmasens at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.90 · 63 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirmasens attack 2.95 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.98

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Pirmasens defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Pirmasens scores more

76%

level

14%

Viktoria Herxheim scores more

10%

Pirmasens at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Pirmasens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff