Viktoria Herxheim 3–1 Arminia Ludwigshafen

Viktoria Herxheim

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Arminia Ludwigshafen

5/31/2025

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 34Herxheim Rasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Viktoria Herxheim35%

×Draw21%

Arminia Ludwigshafen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria HerxheimExpected goals in this matchArminia Ludwigshafen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.06

Viktoria Herxheim

1.85

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.06

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

1.53

creates per match

1.87

2.24

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Viktoria Herxheim

1.53

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.87

allows per match

Viktoria Herxheim

2.24

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Herxheim ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Viktoria Herxheim or draw

57%

Viktoria Herxheim or Arminia Ludwigshafen

79%

Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen

65%

Winning margin

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+

18%

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals

84%

Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals

55%

Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals

28%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

87%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

61%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)

45%

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Herxheim at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.53 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktoria Herxheim scores more

35%

level

21%

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

43%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff