Arminia Ludwigshafen 2–0 Viktoria Herxheim

Arminia Ludwigshafen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viktoria Herxheim

11/15/2024

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 17Haag-Park-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen58%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Herxheim22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia LudwigshafenExpected goals in this matchViktoria Herxheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.46

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.42

Viktoria Herxheim

1.46

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 66% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

1.12

1.79

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.83

Viktoria Herxheim

1.12

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.79

Viktoria Herxheim

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Viktoria Herxheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Viktoria Herxheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw

78%

Arminia Ludwigshafen or Viktoria Herxheim

81%

Draw or Viktoria Herxheim

42%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

37%

Viktoria Herxheim wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

91%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

69%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

43%

Viktoria Herxheim 1+ goals

77%

Viktoria Herxheim 2+ goals

43%

Viktoria Herxheim 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

72%

Viktoria Herxheim (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Viktoria Herxheim away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Viktoria Herxheim defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Viktoria Herxheim attack 1.12 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

58%

level

19%

Viktoria Herxheim scores more

22%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff