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Viktoria Griesheim vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
L. Matondo 90+2' (pen)
N. Acun 79'
11/5/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Viktoria Griesheim41%
×Draw22%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Griesheim
1.86
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 93 away

creates per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.81
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.84

allows per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.67
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.92

finishing

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Griesheim ↓

Rot-Weiß Walldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Griesheim or draw
63%
Viktoria Griesheim or Rot-Weiß Walldorf
78%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Walldorf
59%

Winning margin

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
22%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
84%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
55%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
28%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals
83%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals
52%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
53%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Griesheim at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.67 · 58 matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.81 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 1.84 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viktoria Griesheim scores more
41%
level
22%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more
37%

Viktoria Griesheim at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Viktoria Griesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
N. Acun
90+2'
L. MatondoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Griesheim vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf

Viktoria Griesheim beat Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 5, 2023.

Goals: N. Acun (79'), L. Matondo (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim in Griesheim.