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Rot-Weiß Walldorf vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
Rot-Weiß Walldorf
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
M. Mehnatgir 59'
N. Mladenovic 24'
L. Vogt 22'
4/5/2023Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 30Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rot-Weiß Walldorf61%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Griesheim21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.46
Viktoria Griesheim
1.38

Rot-Weiß Walldorf creates 78% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
2.55
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf
1.57
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

Rot-Weiß Walldorf+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Walldorf ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Walldorf or draw
79%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf or Viktoria Griesheim
81%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
39%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Walldorf wins by 2+
39%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Walldorf 1+ goals
91%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 2+ goals
70%
Rot-Weiß Walldorf 3+ goals
44%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
75%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
40%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Walldorf (draw refunded)
75%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Walldorf attack 2.55 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.46

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Rot-Weiß Walldorf defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rot-Weiß Walldorf scores more
61%
level
19%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
21%

Rot-Weiß Walldorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Walldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
L. Vogt
24'
N. Mladenovic
59'
M. Mehnatgir
74'
E. Arslan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Walldorf vs Viktoria Griesheim

Rot-Weiß Walldorf beat Viktoria Griesheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on April 5, 2023.

Goals: L. Vogt (22'), N. Mladenovic (24'), M. Mehnatgir (59').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mörfelden-Walldorf in Mörfelden-Walldorf.