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Viktoria Griesheim vs Hünfelder SV — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
3/10/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 23Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Viktoria Griesheim43%
×Draw23%
Hünfelder SV35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Griesheim
1.77
Hünfelder SV
1.58

Viktoria Griesheim creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 74 away

creates per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.81
Hünfelder SV
1.50

allows per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.67
Hünfelder SV
1.74

finishing

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par
Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Griesheim ↓

Hünfelder SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Viktoria Griesheim or draw
65%
Viktoria Griesheim or Hünfelder SV
77%
Draw or Hünfelder SV
57%

Winning margin

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
22%
Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
83%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
53%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
26%
Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
79%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
47%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
55%
Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Griesheim at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.67 · 58 matches

Hünfelder SV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.81 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hünfelder SV attack 1.50 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktoria Griesheim scores more
43%
level
23%
Hünfelder SV scores more
35%

Viktoria Griesheim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Griesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Griesheim vs Hünfelder SV

Hünfelder SV beat Viktoria Griesheim 3-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim in Griesheim.