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Hünfelder SV vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hünfelder SV
Hünfelder SV
CANC
13:00
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
4/10/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 27Rasenplatz Hünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hünfelder SV52%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Griesheim27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hünfelder SV
2.12
Viktoria Griesheim
1.48

Hünfelder SV creates 43% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hünfelder SV
1.85
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

Hünfelder SV
1.76
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hünfelder SV ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hünfelder SV or draw
73%
Hünfelder SV or Viktoria Griesheim
79%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
48%

Winning margin

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+
31%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals
88%
Hünfelder SV 2+ goals
62%
Hünfelder SV 3+ goals
35%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)
66%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hünfelder SV at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hünfelder SV attack 1.85 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hünfelder SV scores more
52%
level
21%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
27%

Hünfelder SV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hünfelder SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hünfelder SV face Viktoria Griesheim (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen returns with Hünfelder SV hosting Viktoria Griesheim. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hünfelder SV host Viktoria Griesheim at Rasenplatz Hünfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.