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Viktoria Griesheim vs Friedberg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Friedberg
Friedberg
3/24/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 25Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Viktoria Griesheim36%
×Draw23%
Friedberg41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Griesheim
1.67
Friedberg
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 92 away

creates per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.81
Friedberg
1.89

allows per match

Viktoria Griesheim
1.67
Friedberg
1.52

finishing

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par
Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Griesheim ↓

Friedberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Viktoria Griesheim or draw
59%
Viktoria Griesheim or Friedberg
77%
Draw or Friedberg
64%

Winning margin

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
18%
Friedberg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
81%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
50%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
23%
Friedberg 1+ goals
83%
Friedberg 2+ goals
53%
Friedberg 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
47%
Friedberg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Griesheim at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.67 · 58 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.81 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.67

Friedberg attack 1.89 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Viktoria Griesheim scores more
36%
level
23%
Friedberg scores more
41%

Friedberg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Viktoria Griesheim 0–2 Friedberg

Friedberg beat Viktoria Griesheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Griesheim in Griesheim.