Friedberg 7–0 Viktoria Griesheim: Result & Stats

Friedberg

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Viktoria Griesheim

9/9/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 7Rasenplatz Friedberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Friedberg61%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Griesheim20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FriedbergExpected goals in this matchViktoria Griesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.35

Friedberg

2.42

Viktoria Griesheim

1.35

Friedberg creates 79% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 58 away

2.46

creates per match

1.19

1.52

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Friedberg

2.46

Viktoria Griesheim

1.19

allows per match

Friedberg

1.52

Viktoria Griesheim

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw

80%

Friedberg or Viktoria Griesheim

81%

Draw or Viktoria Griesheim

39%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+

39%

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals

91%

Friedberg 2+ goals

69%

Friedberg 3+ goals

43%

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals

74%

Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals

39%

Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)

75%

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.42

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Friedberg scores more

61%

level

19%

Viktoria Griesheim scores more

20%

Friedberg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff