Viktoria Berlin 3–3 Tennis Borussia: Result & Stats

Viktoria Berlin

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Tennis Borussia

9/20/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Stadion Lichterfelde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viktoria Berlin31%

×Draw19%

Tennis Borussia49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria BerlinExpected goals in this matchTennis Borussia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

2.50

Viktoria Berlin

1.98

Tennis Borussia

2.50

Tennis Borussia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.73

creates per match

1.60

3.40

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin

1.73

Tennis Borussia

1.60

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin

3.40

Tennis Borussia

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin ↓

Tennis Borussia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin or draw

51%

Viktoria Berlin or Tennis Borussia

81%

Draw or Tennis Borussia

69%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+

16%

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals

59%

Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals

31%

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

92%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

71%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)

39%

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin at home — creates 1.73, concedes 3.40 · 15 matches

Tennis Borussia away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.73 + Tennis Borussia defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Tennis Borussia attack 1.60 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viktoria Berlin scores more

31%

level

19%

Tennis Borussia scores more

49%

Tennis Borussia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff