Tennis Borussia 2–1 Viktoria Berlin: Result & Stats

Tennis Borussia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Viktoria Berlin

3/15/2026

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Mommsenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tennis Borussia69%

×Draw16%

Viktoria Berlin15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tennis BorussiaExpected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.04

1.42

Tennis Borussia

3.04

Viktoria Berlin

1.42

Tennis Borussia creates 114% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.07

1.77

allows per match

3.87

creates per match

Tennis Borussia

2.20

Viktoria Berlin

1.07

allows per match

Tennis Borussia

1.77

Viktoria Berlin

3.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tennis Borussia+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tennis Borussia ↓

Viktoria Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Tennis Borussia or draw

85%

Tennis Borussia or Viktoria Berlin

84%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin

31%

Winning margin

Tennis Borussia wins by 2+

49%

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tennis Borussia 1+ goals

95%

Tennis Borussia 2+ goals

80%

Tennis Borussia 3+ goals

57%

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals

76%

Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals

41%

Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Tennis Borussia (draw refunded)

82%

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tennis Borussia at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tennis Borussia attack 2.20 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 3.04

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.07 + Tennis Borussia defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tennis Borussia scores more

69%

level

16%

Viktoria Berlin scores more

15%

Tennis Borussia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tennis Borussia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff