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Viktoria Berlin vs Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Viktoria Berlin
Viktoria Berlin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
B. Pick 41'
S. Reiniger 72'
R. Ohlow 16'
C. Gawe 3'
8/10/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Stadion Lichterfelde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Viktoria Berlin15%
×Draw15%
Lichtenberg71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Berlin
1.46
Lichtenberg
3.22

Lichtenberg creates 121% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin
1.73
Lichtenberg
3.04

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin
3.40
Lichtenberg
1.18

finishing

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par
Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin ↓

Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin or draw
29%
Viktoria Berlin or Lichtenberg
85%
Draw or Lichtenberg
85%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+
6%
Lichtenberg wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals
18%
Lichtenberg 1+ goals
96%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
82%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)
17%
Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin at home — creates 1.73, concedes 3.40 · 15 matches

Lichtenberg away — creates 3.04, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.73 + Lichtenberg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lichtenberg attack 3.04 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Viktoria Berlin scores more
15%
level
15%
Lichtenberg scores more
71%

Lichtenberg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
C. Gawe
16'
R. Ohlow
41'
B. Pick
72'
S. Reiniger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Viktoria Berlin 1–3 Lichtenberg

Lichtenberg beat Viktoria Berlin 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 10, 2025.

Goals: C. Gawe (3'), R. Ohlow (16'), B. Pick (41'), S. Reiniger (72').

The match was played at Stadion Lichterfelde in Berlin.