Lichtenberg 7–0 Viktoria Berlin: Result & Stats

Lichtenberg

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Viktoria Berlin

3/4/2026

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lichtenberg80%

×Draw12%

Viktoria Berlin8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LichtenbergExpected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.25

1.00

Lichtenberg

3.25

Viktoria Berlin

1.00

Lichtenberg creates 225% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.62

creates per match

1.07

0.93

allows per match

3.87

creates per match

Lichtenberg

2.62

Viktoria Berlin

1.07

allows per match

Lichtenberg

0.93

Viktoria Berlin

3.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lichtenberg ↓

Viktoria Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Lichtenberg or draw

92%

Lichtenberg or Viktoria Berlin

88%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin

20%

Winning margin

Lichtenberg wins by 2+

61%

Viktoria Berlin wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lichtenberg 1+ goals

96%

Lichtenberg 2+ goals

83%

Lichtenberg 3+ goals

61%

Viktoria Berlin 1+ goals

63%

Viktoria Berlin 2+ goals

26%

Viktoria Berlin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

91%

Viktoria Berlin (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lichtenberg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Viktoria Berlin away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lichtenberg attack 2.62 + Viktoria Berlin defence 3.87 → ÷2 → 3.25

Viktoria Berlin attack 1.07 + Lichtenberg defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Lichtenberg scores more

80%

level

12%

Viktoria Berlin scores more

8%

Lichtenberg at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff