Viktoria Berlin U19 2–1 Hallescher FC U19

Viktoria Berlin U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hallescher FC U19

Ü. Durmushan 75' (pen)

D. Günay 45'

M. Linse 72'

3/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 15Allianzstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1944%

×Draw21%

Hallescher FC U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchHallescher FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.81

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.06

Hallescher FC U19

1.81

Viktoria Berlin U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 37 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

2.37

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.61

Hallescher FC U19

1.24

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.37

Hallescher FC U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Hallescher FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Hallescher FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw

65%

Viktoria Berlin U19 or Hallescher FC U19

79%

Draw or Hallescher FC U19

56%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

25%

Hallescher FC U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

87%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

61%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

34%

Hallescher FC U19 1+ goals

84%

Hallescher FC U19 2+ goals

54%

Hallescher FC U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Hallescher FC U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Hallescher FC U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Hallescher FC U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.06

Hallescher FC U19 attack 1.24 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

44%

level

21%

Hallescher FC U19 scores more

35%

Viktoria Berlin U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

D. Günay

58'

K. Ahmad← J. Imasuen

69'

M. Hoffmeister← M. Sungur

70'

S. Akpolat← B. Kluge

72'

M. Linse

73'

V. Zaruba← R. Pessel

75'

Ü. DurmushanPenalty

83'

K. Grigoriadis← O. Scacun

86'

M. Khalil← T. Koczulap

90'

M. Fürst← M. Mohamed

Viktoria

Hallescher

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Keskin

58'▲K. Ahmad←▼J. Imasuen

70'▲S. Akpolat←▼B. Kluge

83'▲K. Grigoriadis←▼O. Scacun

90'▲M. Fürst←▼M. Mohamed

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

AhmadAkpolatGrigoriadisFürstAkdagDrostSchulz

Manager: M. Buszkowiak

69'▲M. Hoffmeister←▼M. Sungur

73'▲V. Zaruba←▼R. Pessel

86'▲M. Khalil←▼T. Koczulap

Hallescher FC U19 substitutes

HoffmeisterZarubaKhalilKellerLippoldtSultaniRimbach