Viktoria Berlin U19 3–1 Eimsbütteler TV U19

Viktoria Berlin U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eimsbütteler TV U19

C. Drost 83'

J. Imasuen 63', 17'

M. Ajruli 90+2'

2/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 12Allianzstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1943%

×Draw22%

Eimsbütteler TV U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.69

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.90

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.69

Viktoria Berlin U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

1.61

creates per match

1.00

2.37

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.61

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.37

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw

65%

Viktoria Berlin U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19

78%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19

57%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

24%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

85%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

56%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

29%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

82%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

50%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

35%

Viktoria Berlin U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

J. Imasuen

46'

N. Leptien← J. Agyemang

61'

M. Ajruli← S. Siegfried

63'

J. Imasuen

70'

O. Scacun← T. Jakob

77'

C. Drost← B. Kluge

77'

A. Tahirsylaj← D. Naumann

82'

S. Akpolat← K. Grigoriadis

83'

L. Schumacher← F. Bulut

83'

C. Drost

90+2'

M. Ajruli

Viktoria

Eimsbütteler

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: S. Keskin

70'▲O. Scacun←▼T. Jakob

77'▲C. Drost←▼B. Kluge

82'▲S. Akpolat←▼K. Grigoriadis

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

ScacunDrostAkpolatAkdagThurauAhmadSchulz

Manager: P. Nabaoui

46'▲N. Leptien←▼J. Agyemang

61'▲M. Ajruli←▼S. Siegfried

77'▲A. Tahirsylaj←▼D. Naumann

83'▲L. Schumacher←▼F. Bulut

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

LeptienAjruliTahirsylajSchumacherGyemaGlassKolvenbach

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Berlin U19 3–1 Eimsbütteler TV U19

Viktoria Berlin U19 beat Eimsbütteler TV U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 6, 2022.

Goals: J. Imasuen (17', 63'), C. Drost (83'), M. Ajruli (90+2').

The match was played at Allianzstadion in Berlin.

Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Viktoria Berlin U19 3–1 Eimsbütteler TV U19