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Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Viktoria Berlin U19
Viktoria Berlin U19
CANC
10:00
Eimsbütteler TV U19
Eimsbütteler TV U19
11/21/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Friedrich-Ebert-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Viktoria Berlin U1943%
×Draw22%
Eimsbütteler TV U1935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Berlin U19
1.90
Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.69

Viktoria Berlin U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 11 away

creates per match

Viktoria Berlin U19
1.61
Eimsbütteler TV U19
1.00

allows per match

Viktoria Berlin U19
2.37
Eimsbütteler TV U19
2.18

finishing

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par
Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Berlin U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Berlin U19 or draw
65%
Viktoria Berlin U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19
78%
Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19
57%

Winning margin

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+
24%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals
85%
Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals
56%
Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals
29%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals
82%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals
50%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
55%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.37 · 41 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.61 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more
43%
level
22%
Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more
35%

Viktoria Berlin U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viktoria Berlin U19 vs Eimsbütteler TV U19 — Match Preview

Viktoria Berlin U19 face Eimsbütteler TV U19 on November 21, 2020 in this U19 Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Viktoria Berlin U19 host Eimsbütteler TV U19 at Friedrich-Ebert-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.