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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
CANC
16:30
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
7/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg25%
×Draw21%
TSV Steinbach54%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.46
TSV Steinbach
2.19

TSV Steinbach creates 50% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.25
TSV Steinbach
2.00

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
2.38
TSV Steinbach
1.67

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
46%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or TSV Steinbach
79%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
75%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
11%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
18%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
89%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
64%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
32%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.25 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

TSV Steinbach attack 2.00 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
25%
level
21%
TSV Steinbach scores more
54%

TSV Steinbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viktoria Aschaffenburg face TSV Steinbach (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Viktoria Aschaffenburg hosting TSV Steinbach. Match starts July 12, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg host TSV Steinbach at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.