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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
2/11/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion am Schönbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg22%
×Draw20%
TSV Steinbach58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.33
TSV Steinbach
2.26

TSV Steinbach creates 70% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.11
TSV Steinbach
2.08

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
2.44
TSV Steinbach
1.54

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
42%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or TSV Steinbach
80%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
78%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
9%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
38%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
15%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
89%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
66%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
27%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.11 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

TSV Steinbach attack 2.08 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
22%
level
20%
TSV Steinbach scores more
58%

TSV Steinbach at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 0–3 TSV Steinbach

TSV Steinbach beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Schönbusch in Aschaffenburg.