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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
9/1/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 8Stadion am Schönbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg36%
×Draw24%
Nürnberg II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.48
Nürnberg II
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.52
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.36
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
60%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or Nürnberg II
76%
Draw or Nürnberg II
64%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
17%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
19%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
79%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
46%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
48%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.52 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
36%
level
24%
Nürnberg II scores more
40%

Nürnberg II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Nürnberg II

Nürnberg II beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 4-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Schönbusch in Aschaffenburg.