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Nürnberg II vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
3/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nürnberg II54%
×Draw22%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
1.94
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.21

Nürnberg II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 90 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.18

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.62

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
76%
Nürnberg II or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
78%
Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
46%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
31%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
86%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
58%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
30%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
34%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
70%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.94

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
54%
level
22%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
24%

Nürnberg II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Nürnberg II 1–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Nürnberg II and Viktoria Aschaffenburg drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.