Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2–0 Buchbach: Result & Stats

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Buchbach

7/28/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2Stadion am Schönbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg48%

×Draw24%

Buchbach28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria AschaffenburgExpected goals in this matchBuchbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.21

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.65

Buchbach

1.21

Viktoria Aschaffenburg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 86 away

1.52

creates per match

1.06

1.36

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.52

Buchbach

1.06

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1.36

Buchbach

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

Buchbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw

72%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or Buchbach

76%

Draw or Buchbach

52%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+

25%

Buchbach wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals

81%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals

49%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals

23%

Buchbach 1+ goals

70%

Buchbach 2+ goals

34%

Buchbach 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)

63%

Buchbach (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.52 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Buchbach attack 1.06 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more

48%

level

24%

Buchbach scores more

28%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viktoria Aschaffenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff