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Buchbach vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
6 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
5/8/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 33SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Buchbach46%
×Draw24%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
1.67
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.32

Buchbach creates 27% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 90 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.71
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.18

allows per match

Buchbach
1.46
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.62

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
70%
Buchbach or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
76%
Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
54%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
24%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
81%
Buchbach 2+ goals
50%
Buchbach 3+ goals
23%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
73%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
38%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
60%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.71 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Buchbach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Buchbach scores more
46%
level
24%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
30%

Buchbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buchbach vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Buchbach beat Viktoria Aschaffenburg 6-3 in Regionalliga - Bayern on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.