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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
12/4/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler43%
×Draw23%
TuS BW Königsdorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.74
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.50

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 60 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
67%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or TuS BW Königsdorf
77%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
57%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
23%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
82%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
52%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
25%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
78%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
44%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
57%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.74

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
43%
level
23%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
33%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Arnoldsweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs TuS BW Königsdorf

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler beat TuS BW Königsdorf 3-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion in Düren.