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TuS BW Königsdorf vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
6/11/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 30Sportplatz Königsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

TuS BW Königsdorf60%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.33
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.29

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 81% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 36 away

creates per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
2.08
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

TuS BW Königsdorf
1.22
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS BW Königsdorf ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

TuS BW Königsdorf or draw
80%
TuS BW Königsdorf or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
81%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
40%

Winning margin

TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
38%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
90%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
67%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
41%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
72%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
37%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
75%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS BW Königsdorf at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 2.08 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
60%
level
19%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
20%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: TuS BW Königsdorf 5–1 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

TuS BW Königsdorf beat Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 5-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Königsdorf in Frechen.