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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
CANC
13:00
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
6/3/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 32Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler51%
×Draw22%
Friesdorf28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.03
Friesdorf
1.45

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler creates 40% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 36 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
72%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Friesdorf
78%
Draw or Friesdorf
49%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
29%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
87%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
60%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
33%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
77%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
42%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
65%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.03

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
51%
level
22%
Friesdorf scores more
28%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Viktoria Arnoldsweiler will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler host Friesdorf

June 3, 2021: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler take on Friesdorf in Oberliga - Mittelrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler host Friesdorf at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.