Friesdorf 1–1 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Friesdorf

FT

1 – 1

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

9/19/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Sportzentrum Friesdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Friesdorf48%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FriesdorfExpected goals in this matchViktoria Arnoldsweiler

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.81

Friesdorf

2.25

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.81

Friesdorf creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 36 away

1.91

creates per match

1.36

2.25

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Friesdorf

1.91

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.36

allows per match

Friesdorf

2.25

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Friesdorf+0.00on par

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friesdorf ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Friesdorf or draw

68%

Friesdorf or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

80%

Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

52%

Winning margin

Friesdorf wins by 2+

28%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Friesdorf 1+ goals

89%

Friesdorf 2+ goals

65%

Friesdorf 3+ goals

39%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

84%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

54%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Friesdorf (draw refunded)

60%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friesdorf at home — creates 1.91, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friesdorf attack 1.91 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.25

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Friesdorf defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Friesdorf scores more

48%

level

20%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

32%

Friesdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Friesdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff