Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 0–4 Frechen: Result & Stats

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Frechen

11/3/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Arnoldsweiler Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler36%

×Draw24%

Frechen40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria ArnoldsweilerExpected goals in this matchFrechen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.60

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.52

Frechen

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 81 away

1.56

creates per match

1.68

1.53

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.56

Frechen

1.68

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

1.53

Frechen

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Frechen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Frechen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw

60%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Frechen

76%

Draw or Frechen

64%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+

17%

Frechen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals

78%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals

45%

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals

20%

Frechen 1+ goals

80%

Frechen 2+ goals

47%

Frechen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)

48%

Frechen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Frechen away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.49 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Frechen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Frechen attack 1.68 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more

36%

level

24%

Frechen scores more

40%

Frechen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff