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Frechen vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
1 – 2
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
9/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 5Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Frechen59%
×Draw19%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.46
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.46

Frechen creates 68% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 36 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
78%
Frechen or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
81%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
41%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
38%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
91%
Frechen 2+ goals
70%
Frechen 3+ goals
44%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
73%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.46

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Frechen scores more
59%
level
19%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
22%

Frechen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frechen vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler beat Frechen 2-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark in Frechen.