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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Düren Merzenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
3/10/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 18Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler32%
×Draw23%
Düren Merzenich45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.45
Düren Merzenich
1.78

Düren Merzenich creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 33 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
Düren Merzenich
2.03

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
Düren Merzenich
1.33

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
Düren Merzenich+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Düren Merzenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
55%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Düren Merzenich
77%
Draw or Düren Merzenich
68%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
14%
Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
42%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
18%
Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
83%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
53%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
41%
Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Düren Merzenich away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.33 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Düren Merzenich attack 2.03 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
32%
level
23%
Düren Merzenich scores more
45%

Düren Merzenich at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1–1 Düren Merzenich

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler and Düren Merzenich drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 10, 2022.

The match was played at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion in Düren.