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Düren Merzenich vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Düren Merzenich
Düren Merzenich
CANC
13:30
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
11/29/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 11Westkampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Düren Merzenich69%
×Draw16%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Düren Merzenich
2.76
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.24

Düren Merzenich creates 123% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Düren Merzenich
2.94
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

Düren Merzenich
1.12
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

Düren Merzenich+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Düren Merzenich ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Düren Merzenich or draw
85%
Düren Merzenich or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
84%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
31%

Winning margin

Düren Merzenich wins by 2+
48%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Düren Merzenich 1+ goals
94%
Düren Merzenich 2+ goals
76%
Düren Merzenich 3+ goals
51%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
71%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
35%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Düren Merzenich (draw refunded)
82%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Düren Merzenich at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Düren Merzenich attack 2.94 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.76

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Düren Merzenich defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Düren Merzenich scores more
69%
level
16%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
15%

Düren Merzenich at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Düren Merzenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Düren Merzenich face Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Düren Merzenich hosting Viktoria Arnoldsweiler. Match starts November 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Düren Merzenich host Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at Westkampfbahn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.