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Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Bergisch Gladbach — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
10/16/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 9Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler30%
×Draw24%
Bergisch Gladbach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.35
Bergisch Gladbach
1.73

Bergisch Gladbach creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 76 away

creates per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.56
Bergisch Gladbach
1.92

allows per match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.53
Bergisch Gladbach
1.14

finishing

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par
Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler ↓

Bergisch Gladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or draw
54%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler or Bergisch Gladbach
76%
Draw or Bergisch Gladbach
70%

Winning margin

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
13%
Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
74%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
39%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
15%
Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
82%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
52%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
39%
Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

Bergisch Gladbach away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.56 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bergisch Gladbach attack 1.92 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
30%
level
24%
Bergisch Gladbach scores more
46%

Bergisch Gladbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Arnoldsweiler vs Bergisch Gladbach

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler beat Bergisch Gladbach 1-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Bertram-Möthrath-Stadion in Düren.