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Bergisch Gladbach vs Viktoria Arnoldsweiler — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bergisch Gladbach
Bergisch Gladbach
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
5/7/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 24BELKAW-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bergisch Gladbach65%
×Draw18%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergisch Gladbach
2.55
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.26

Bergisch Gladbach creates 102% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bergisch Gladbach
2.52
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
1.36

allows per match

Bergisch Gladbach
1.16
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
2.58

finishing

Bergisch Gladbach+0.00on par
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergisch Gladbach ↓

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Bergisch Gladbach or draw
83%
Bergisch Gladbach or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
82%
Draw or Viktoria Arnoldsweiler
35%

Winning margin

Bergisch Gladbach wins by 2+
43%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bergisch Gladbach 1+ goals
92%
Bergisch Gladbach 2+ goals
72%
Bergisch Gladbach 3+ goals
46%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 1+ goals
72%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 2+ goals
36%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bergisch Gladbach (draw refunded)
79%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergisch Gladbach at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergisch Gladbach attack 2.52 + Viktoria Arnoldsweiler defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.55

Viktoria Arnoldsweiler attack 1.36 + Bergisch Gladbach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bergisch Gladbach scores more
65%
level
18%
Viktoria Arnoldsweiler scores more
17%

Bergisch Gladbach at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bergisch Gladbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bergisch Gladbach 1–1 Viktoria Arnoldsweiler

Bergisch Gladbach and Viktoria Arnoldsweiler drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at BELKAW-Arena in Bergisch Gladbach.