Vikingur Reykjavik 4–0 KA Akureyri: Result & Stats

Vikingur Reykjavik

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

KA Akureyri

H. Gudjonsson 55'

K. Gunnarsson 24'

V. Ingimundarson 14', 3'

4/13/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 2Víkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik65%

×Draw18%

KA Akureyri17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKA Akureyri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.61

1.28

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.61

KA Akureyri

1.28

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 104% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

3.00

creates per match

1.52

1.04

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.00

KA Akureyri

1.52

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.04

KA Akureyri

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

KA Akureyri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

83%

Vikingur Reykjavik or KA Akureyri

82%

Draw or KA Akureyri

35%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

44%

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

73%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

47%

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

72%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

37%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

79%

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

KA Akureyri away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 3.00 + KA Akureyri defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.61

KA Akureyri attack 1.52 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

65%

level

18%

KA Akureyri scores more

17%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

V. Ingimundarson↳ H. Gudjonsson

14'

V. Ingimundarson↳ V. Andrason

18'

S. Thordarson← V. Ingimundarson

21'

S. Thorkelsson

24'

K. Gunnarsson↳ D. Hafsteinsson

33'

D. Valsson← V. Kjartansson

45'

45'

50'

55'

63'

M. Thordarson← H. Steingrimsson

63'

I. Stole← G. Hrafnkelsson

65'

A. Jonasson← E. Agnarsson

74'

H. Gudmundsson

75'

M. M. Petursson← H. Gudmundsson

75'

J. Arnason← J. S. Edmundsson

77'

J. Arnason

82'

T. Ingolfsson← D. Hafsteinsson

82'

J. Tjorvason← H. Gudjonsson

Vikingur

KA

13

Audunsson

22

Steingrim

5

Arnason

30

▼

Hrafnkels

7

▼

Edmundsso

10

▼

Steingrim

4

Rodri

28

▼

Gudmundss

77

Adalstein

9

▼

11

1

24

22

⚽

20

2

27

7

▼

Agnarsson

8

A

Andrason

11

A

▼

Hafsteins

9

⚽A

▼

Gudjonsso

25

⚽2

▼

Ingimunda

Manager: Sölvi Geir Ottesen Jónsson

18'▲S. Thordarson←▼V. Ingimundarson

65'▲A. Jonasson←▼E. Agnarsson

82'▲T. Ingolfsson←▼D. Hafsteinsson

82'▲J. Tjorvason←▼H. Gudjonsson

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

15Thorkelsson16Magnusson17Jonasson19Ingolfsson31Tjorvason33Brynjarsson34Bjorgvinsson36Bergmann77Thordarson

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

33'▲D. Valsson←▼V. Kjartansson

63'▲M. Thordarson←▼H. Steingrimsson

63'▲I. Stole←▼G. Hrafnkelsson

75'▲M. M. Petursson←▼H. Gudmundsson

75'▲J. Arnason←▼J. S. Edmundsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

12Tonning3Gautason14Stefansson21Thordarson23Petursson25Valsson26Stole29Arnason88Davidsson