KA Akureyri 0–2 Vikingur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vikingur Reykjavik

G. Sigurdsson 69'

N. Hansen 30'

6/22/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 12Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KA Akureyri29%

×Draw22%

Vikingur Reykjavik48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchVikingur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.90

KA Akureyri

1.43

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.90

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.81

creates per match

2.36

1.44

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.81

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.36

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.44

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

52%

KA Akureyri or Vikingur Reykjavik

78%

Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik

71%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

13%

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

76%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

42%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

17%

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

85%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

56%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

38%

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.44 · 27 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.81 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.36 + KA Akureyri defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

29%

level

22%

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

48%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

V. Andrason

30'

N. Hansen↳ G. Sigurdsson

35'

I. Arnason

46'

E. Agnarsson← A. Al Mosawe

60'

N. Hansen

64'

J. S. Edmundsson← D. Valsson

64'

T. Ibrahimagic← V. Andrason

64'

M. Vilhjalmsson← N. Hansen

69'

G. Sigurdsson↳ V. Ingimundarson

73'

D. Hafsteinsson

74'

V. Kjartansson← A. Sigurgeirsson

74'

I. Stole← J. Arnason

75'

H. Gudjonsson← V. Ingimundarson

78'

G. Sigurdsson

84'

J. S. Edmundsson

86'

M. Thordarson← B. Adalsteinsson

86'

S. Thorkelsson← K. Gunnarsson

90+1'

H. Steingrimsson

KA

Vikingur

1

Jonsson

22

▼

6

11

4

15

12

▼

Mosawe

25

A

▼

Ingimunda

23

⚽

▼

Hansen

32

⚽A

Sigurdsso

8

▼

Andrason

12

Tonning

29

▼

2

5

28

22

8

25

▼

Valsson

77

▼

Adalstein

11

▼

Sigurgeir

10

Steingrim

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

64'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼D. Valsson

74'▲V. Kjartansson←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

74'▲I. Stole←▼J. Arnason

86'▲M. Thordarson←▼B. Adalsteinsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

99Ingolfsson7Edmundsson9Kjartansson14Stefansson21Thordarson23Petursson26Stole30Hrafnkelsson44Saevarsson

Manager: Sölvi Geir Ottesen Jónsson

46'▲E. Agnarsson←▼A. Al Mosawe

64'▲T. Ibrahimagic←▼V. Andrason

64'▲M. Vilhjalmsson←▼N. Hansen

75'▲H. Gudjonsson←▼V. Ingimundarson

86'▲S. Thorkelsson←▼K. Gunnarsson

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

80Arinbjornsson2Thorkelsson7Agnarsson9Gudjonsson20Ibrahimagic24Atlason27Vilhjalmsson33Brynjarsson48Sverrisson