Vikingur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Vikingur Reykjavik

Preview

18:00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

8/9/2026

Úrvalsdeild · Round 18

66%

Vikingur Reykjavik

model favours

66%18%16%

67% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

71%

over 2.5 goals

63%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik66%

×Draw18%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.17

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.50

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.17

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 114% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

3.00

creates per match

1.30

1.04

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.30

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.04

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

84%

Vikingur Reykjavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

82%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

34%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

44%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

92%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

71%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

45%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

69%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

33%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

80%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 3.00 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.30 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

66%

level

18%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

16%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

41% of Vikingur Reykjavik’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Reykjavik

DWWLW

Vestmannaeyjar

LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff