Vikingur Reykjavik 2–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Vikingur Reykjavik

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

G. Vatnhamar 79'

D. Hafsteinsson 49'

4/7/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 1Víkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik69%

×Draw17%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.65

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 135% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

3.13

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.13

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.25

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

86%

Vikingur Reykjavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

83%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

31%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

48%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

74%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

48%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

68%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

31%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

83%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.13, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 3.13 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.65

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.25 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

69%

level

17%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

14%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

A. Hilmarsson

33'

S. Thorkelsson

44'

V. Andrason

45+3'

H. Gudjonsson← A. Thrandarson

49'

D. Hafsteinsson↳ S. Thorkelsson

54'

G. Sigurdsson

63'

J. Pettersen← B. Gunnarsson

63'

O. Sowe← B. Baxter

69'

D. Atlason← D. Hafsteinsson

69'

M. Vilhjalmsson← V. Andrason

72'

A. Gunnarsson← A. Hilmarsson

72'

B. Hlynsson← A. Kristinsson

79'

G. Vatnhamar↳ H. Gudjonsson

83'

S. Hjaltested← H. Ragnarsson

90'

A. Jonasson← V. Ingimundarson

90'

S. Thordarson← E. Agnarsson

Vikingur

IBV

1

Zapytowsk

23

▼

2

5

26

8

▼

Gunnarsso

6

Tomic

25

▼

Hilmarsso

22

Heidarsso

24

▼

Ragnarsso

45

▼

Baxter

1

Jonsson

6

⚽

Vatnhamar

22

Gunnarsso

20

Ibrahimag

2

A

Thorkelss

32

Sigurdsso

7

▼

Agnarsson

8

▼

Andrason

11

⚽

▼

Hafsteins

21

▼

Thrandars

25

▼

Ingimunda

Manager: Sölvi Geir Ottesen Jónsson

45+3'▲H. Gudjonsson←▼A. Thrandarson

69'▲D. Atlason←▼D. Hafsteinsson

69'▲M. Vilhjalmsson←▼V. Andrason

90'▲A. Jonasson←▼V. Ingimundarson

90'▲S. Thordarson←▼E. Agnarsson

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

15Thorkelsson24Atlason31Tjorvason17Jonasson16Magnusson77Thordarson27Vilhjalmsson19Ingolfsson9Gudjonsson

Manager: Þorlákur Már Arnason

63'▲J. Pettersen←▼B. Gunnarsson

63'▲O. Sowe←▼B. Baxter

72'▲A. Gunnarsson←▼A. Hilmarsson

72'▲B. Hlynsson←▼A. Kristinsson

83'▲S. Hjaltested←▼H. Ragnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

14Gunnarsson9Valgeirsson4Nokkvason7Pettersen3Fridriksson10Hjaltested31Arnarsson21Hlynsson67Sowe