Vikingur Reykjavik 6–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Vikingur Reykjavik

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

P. Punyed 87', 27'

H. Guðjónsson 82' (pen)

M. Vilhjálmsson 72'

B. Ingason 13'

N. Hansen 10'

7/30/2023

Úrvalsdeild · Round 17Víkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik70%

×Draw16%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchIBV Vestmannaeyjar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik

2.68

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.13

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 137% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

3.19

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

3.19

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.25

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.00

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw

86%

Vikingur Reykjavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

84%

Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar

30%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

48%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

93%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

74%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

49%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

68%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

31%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

83%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 3.19, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 3.19 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.68

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 1.25 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

70%

level

16%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

14%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

N. Hansen↳ M. Vilhjálmsson

13'

B. Ingason↳ M. Vilhjálmsson

21'

J. Ingason

23'

K. Gunnarsson← D. Atlason

27'

30'

38'

43'

52'

55'

64'

G. Hrafnkelsson← J. Ingason

64'

S. Hjaltested← O. Heiðarsson

66'

H. Guðjónsson← N. Hansen

67'

V. Andrason← L. Tómasson

67'

A. Sigurpálsson← D. Djuric

72'

M. Vilhjálmsson

74'

G. Þórðarson← G. Vatnhamar

74'

B. Ómarsson← E. Sigurbjörnsson

77'

P. Punyed

81'

E. Bwomono

82'

H. GuðjónssonPenalty

87'

P. Punyed↳ E. Agnarsson

90+1'

N. Nökkvason← A. Hilmarsson

90+1'

D. Atkinson← A. Gunnarsson

Vikingur

IBV

12

Smit

23

▼

Sigurbjör

5

▼

3

2

42

25

▼

Hilmarsso

16

Magnússon

17

▼

Heiðarsso

28

Þórðarson

14

▼

Gunnarsso

1

Jónsson

24

▼

Atlason

4

Ekroth

6

▼

Vatnhamar

3

▼

Tómasson

10

⚽2

Punyed

27

⚽A

Vilhjálms

23

⚽

▼

Hansen

18

⚽

Ingason

7

A

Agnarsson

19

A

▼

Djuric

Manager: A. Gunnlaugsson

23'▲K. Gunnarsson←▼D. Atlason

66'▲H. Guðjónsson←▼N. Hansen

67'▲V. Andrason←▼L. Tómasson

67'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼D. Djuric

74'▲G. Þórðarson←▼G. Vatnhamar

Vikingur Reykjavik substitutes

22Gunnarsson9Guðjónsson8Andrason17Sigurpálsson11Þórðarson12Sigurðsson16Ingason

Manager: H. Hreiðarsson

64'▲G. Hrafnkelsson←▼J. Ingason

64'▲S. Hjaltested←▼O. Heiðarsson

74'▲B. Ómarsson←▼E. Sigurbjörnsson

90+1'▲N. Nökkvason←▼A. Hilmarsson

90+1'▲D. Atkinson←▼A. Gunnarsson

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

7Hrafnkelsson9Hjaltested19Ómarsson4Nökkvason13Atkinson1Elíasson