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Vikingur Reykjavik vs Brondby — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brondby
Brondby
V. Andrason 83'
O. Ekroth 47'
N. Hansen 45'
8/7/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundVíkingsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vikingur Reykjavik66%
×Draw21%
Brondby13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Reykjavik
1.88
Brondby
0.67

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 181% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Vikingur Reykjavik
2.42
Brondby
0.83

allows per match

Vikingur Reykjavik
0.50
Brondby
1.33

finishing

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par
Brondby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Reykjavik ↓

Brondby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vikingur Reykjavik or draw
87%
Vikingur Reykjavik or Brondby
79%
Draw or Brondby
34%

Winning margin

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
40%
Brondby wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
85%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
56%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
29%
Brondby 1+ goals
49%
Brondby 2+ goals
15%
Brondby 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
84%
Brondby (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Brondby away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.42 + Brondby defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

Brondby attack 0.83 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
66%
level
21%
Brondby scores more
13%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
O. EkrothVikingur ReykjavikVikingur Reykjavik · D
9.2

Match Events

45'
N. Hansen↳ G. Sigurdsson
46'
F. Bundgaard← K. Uchino
47'
O. Ekroth↳ G. Sigurdsson
63'
O. Borgthorsson← N. Hansen
65'
Noah Nartey
66'
M. Divkovic← M. Kohlert
73'
B. Tahirovic← O. Villadsen
73'
J. Vanlerberghe← L. Binks
79'
Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson
80'
S. Thorkelsson← V. Ingimundarson
80'
V. Andrason← D. Hafsteinsson
83'
J. Ambaek← C. Bischoff
83'
V. Andrason
84'
Marko Divković
89'
P. Punyed← K. Gunnarsson
89'
A. Jonasson← H. Gudjonsson

Possession

38%Vikingur

Shots

13Vikingur

Pass accuracy

48%Vikingur

Statistics

VikingurBrondby
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots14
5Corners6
11Fouls16
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target5
6Off Target7
3Blocked2
12Inside Box10
1Outside Box4
Passing
38%Possession62%
386Total Passes630
315Accurate Passes552
82%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Vikingur Reykjavik vs Brondby

Vikingur Reykjavik beat Brondby 3-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 7, 2025.

Goals: N. Hansen (45'), O. Ekroth (47'), V. Andrason (83').

Brondby controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 13.

The match was played at Víkingsvöllur in Reykjavík.