Brondby 4–0 Vikingur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Brondby

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vikingur Reykjavik

F. Bundgaard 71', 57'

N. Vallys 52', 45'

8/14/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundBrøndby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brondby69%

×Draw19%

Vikingur Reykjavik12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrondbyExpected goals in this matchVikingur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.72

Brondby

2.09

Vikingur Reykjavik

0.72

Brondby creates 190% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

2.86

creates per match

0.58

0.86

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Brondby

2.86

Vikingur Reykjavik

0.58

allows per match

Brondby

0.86

Vikingur Reykjavik

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brondby+0.00on par

Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brondby ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Brondby or draw

88%

Brondby or Vikingur Reykjavik

81%

Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik

31%

Winning margin

Brondby wins by 2+

44%

Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Brondby 1+ goals

88%

Brondby 2+ goals

62%

Brondby 3+ goals

34%

Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals

51%

Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals

16%

Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Brondby (draw refunded)

85%

Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brondby at home — creates 2.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brondby attack 2.86 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.09

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 0.58 + Brondby defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Brondby scores more

69%

level

19%

Vikingur Reykjavik scores more

12%

Brondby at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Brondby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

N. Vallys

Vikingur Reykjavik

9.3

Match Events

18'

Clement Bischoff

31'

Luis Binks

43'

Daniel Wass

45+1'

Róbert Orri Þorkelsson

45'

N. Vallys↳ M. Kohlert

46'

N. Nartey← B. Tahirovic

52'

N. Vallys↳ S. Klaiber

57'

F. Bundgaard↳ M. Kohlert

62'

Karl Friðleifur Gunnarsson

62'

O. Borgthorsson← N. Hansen

71'

F. Bundgaard

72'

V. Andrason← T. Ibrahimagic

72'

S. Thordarson← E. Agnarsson

78'

S. Thorkelsson← O. Ekroth

78'

D. Atlason← K. Gunnarsson

80'

Marko Divković

82'

S. Spierings← D. Wass

82'

J. Ambaek← F. Bundgaard

88'

Nicolai VallysGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrondbyVikingur

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots4

3Corners2

14Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots4

7On Target1

4Off Target1

2Blocked2

8Inside Box1

5Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

378Total Passes412

315Accurate Passes349

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

6Offsides2