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Vikingur Olafsiik vs Vídir — 2. Deild 2026

Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vídir
Vídir
I. Thorsteinsson 80'
L. Williams 67'
A. Begic 53'
H. Gardarsson 38'
M. Mani Jonsson 87', 10'
7/20/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 13Ólafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik58%
×Draw19%
Vídir22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.42
Vídir
1.46

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 66% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.30
Vídir
1.35

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
1.57
Vídir
2.53

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw
78%
Vikingur Olafsiik or Vídir
81%
Draw or Vídir
42%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
37%
Vídir wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
91%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
69%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
43%
Vídir 1+ goals
77%
Vídir 2+ goals
43%
Vídir 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
72%
Vídir (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.30 + Vídir defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.42

Vídir attack 1.35 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
58%
level
19%
Vídir scores more
22%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Mani Jonsson
38'
H. Gardarsson
53'
A. Begic
67'
L. Williams
80'
I. Thorsteinsson
87'
M. Mani Jonsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Vikingur Olafsiik 4–2 Vídir

Vikingur Olafsiik beat Vídir 4-2 in 2. Deild on July 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Mani Jonsson (10', 87'), H. Gardarsson (38'), A. Begic (53'), L. Williams (67'), I. Thorsteinsson (80').

The match was played at Ólafsvíkurvöllur in Ólafsvik.