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Vídir vs Vikingur Olafsiik — 2. Deild 2026

Vídir
Vídir
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
C. Briggs 14'
I. Sigurdsson 90'
5/3/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 1Nesfisk-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vídir44%
×Draw23%
Vikingur Olafsiik34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vídir
1.81
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.57

Vídir creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vídir
1.67
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.48

allows per match

Vídir
1.67
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.95

finishing

Vídir+0.00on par
Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vídir ↓

Vikingur Olafsiik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vídir or draw
66%
Vídir or Vikingur Olafsiik
77%
Draw or Vikingur Olafsiik
56%

Winning margin

Vídir wins by 2+
23%
Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vídir 1+ goals
84%
Vídir 2+ goals
54%
Vídir 3+ goals
27%
Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
79%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
46%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vídir (draw refunded)
56%
Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vídir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Vikingur Olafsiik away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vídir attack 1.67 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 1.48 + Vídir defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vídir scores more
44%
level
23%
Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
34%

Vídir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vídir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
C. Briggs
90'
I. Sigurdsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Vídir 1–1 Vikingur Olafsiik

Vídir and Vikingur Olafsiik drew 1-1 in 2. Deild on May 3, 2025.

Goals: C. Briggs (14'), I. Sigurdsson (90').

The match was played at Nesfisk-völlurinn in Garður.