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Vikingur Olafsiik vs Sindri — 2. Deild 2018

Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Sindri
Sindri
6/17/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 8Ólafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik68%
×Draw17%
Sindri16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.75
Sindri
1.28

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 115% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
2.42
Sindri
1.08

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik
1.48
Sindri
3.08

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par
Sindri+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

Sindri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw
84%
Vikingur Olafsiik or Sindri
83%
Draw or Sindri
32%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
47%
Sindri wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
93%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
75%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
51%
Sindri 1+ goals
72%
Sindri 2+ goals
37%
Sindri 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
81%
Sindri (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

Sindri away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.42 + Sindri defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.75

Sindri attack 1.08 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
68%
level
17%
Sindri scores more
16%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Vikingur Olafsiik 7–1 Sindri

Vikingur Olafsiik beat Sindri 7-1 in 2. Deild on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Ólafsvíkurvöllur in Ólafsvik.