Sindri 3–3 Vikingur Olafsiik: Result & Stats

Sindri

FT

3 – 3

Vikingur Olafsiik

8/26/2023

2. Deild · Round 19Jökulfellsvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sindri46%

×Draw23%

Vikingur Olafsiik31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SindriExpected goals in this matchVikingur Olafsiik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.39

Sindri

1.73

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.39

Sindri creates 24% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 50 away

1.58

creates per match

1.44

1.33

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Sindri

1.58

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.44

allows per match

Sindri

1.33

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Vikingur Olafsiik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sindri or draw

69%

Sindri or Vikingur Olafsiik

77%

Draw or Vikingur Olafsiik

54%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+

24%

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals

82%

Sindri 2+ goals

52%

Sindri 3+ goals

25%

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

75%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

40%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)

59%

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Vikingur Olafsiik away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.88 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 1.58 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 1.44 + Sindri defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sindri scores more

46%

level

23%

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

31%

Sindri at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sindri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff