Vikingur Olafsiik 4–1 KFG: Result & Stats

Vikingur Olafsiik

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

KFG

A. Begic 79'

I. Lopez 53'

I. Thorsteinsson 32'

L. Romero 19'

J. Eliasson 15' (OG)

5/10/2025

2. Deild · Round 2Ólafsvíkurvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Vikingur Olafsiik61%

×Draw19%

KFG20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vikingur OlafsiikExpected goals in this matchKFG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.36

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.44

KFG

1.36

Vikingur Olafsiik creates 79% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 50 away

2.42

creates per match

1.24

1.48

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

2.42

KFG

1.24

allows per match

Vikingur Olafsiik

1.48

KFG

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

KFG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vikingur Olafsiik ↓

KFG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vikingur Olafsiik or draw

80%

Vikingur Olafsiik or KFG

81%

Draw or KFG

39%

Winning margin

Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+

39%

KFG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals

91%

Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals

70%

Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals

43%

KFG 1+ goals

74%

KFG 2+ goals

39%

KFG 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)

75%

KFG (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vikingur Olafsiik at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.48 · 50 matches

KFG away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 2.42 + KFG defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.44

KFG attack 1.24 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vikingur Olafsiik scores more

61%

level

19%

KFG scores more

20%

Vikingur Olafsiik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vikingur Olafsiik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. EliassonOwn goal

19'

L. Romero

32'

I. Thorsteinsson

53'

I. Lopez

79'

A. Begic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff