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KFG vs Vikingur Olafsiik — 2. Deild 2026

KFG
KFG
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Vikingur Olafsiik
Vikingur Olafsiik
B. Hauksson 88', 60'
P. M. Thorleksson 70'
J. Barddal 2'
G. Martin 90+4'
B. Gudjonsson 90+3'
G. Ingason 82' (OG)
T. Ragnarsson 78'
6/29/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 9Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

KFG43%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Olafsiik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFG
1.98
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

KFG
2.12
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.45

allows per match

KFG
2.16
Vikingur Olafsiik
1.84

finishing

KFG+0.00on par
Vikingur Olafsiik+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFG ↓

Vikingur Olafsiik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

KFG or draw
64%
KFG or Vikingur Olafsiik
79%
Draw or Vikingur Olafsiik
57%

Winning margin

KFG wins by 2+
23%
Vikingur Olafsiik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

KFG 1+ goals
86%
KFG 2+ goals
59%
KFG 3+ goals
31%
Vikingur Olafsiik 1+ goals
84%
Vikingur Olafsiik 2+ goals
54%
Vikingur Olafsiik 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

KFG (draw refunded)
54%
Vikingur Olafsiik (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFG at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.16 · 51 matches

Vikingur Olafsiik away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFG attack 2.12 + Vikingur Olafsiik defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vikingur Olafsiik attack 1.45 + KFG defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

KFG scores more
43%
level
21%
Vikingur Olafsiik scores more
36%

KFG at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KFG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
J. Barddal
60'
B. Hauksson
70'
P. M. Thorleksson
78'
T. Ragnarsson
82'
G. IngasonOwn goal
88'
B. Hauksson
90+3'
B. Gudjonsson
90+4'
G. Martin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KFG vs Vikingur Olafsiik

KFG and Vikingur Olafsiik drew 4-4 in 2. Deild on June 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Barddal (2'), B. Hauksson (60', 88'), P. M. Thorleksson (70'), T. Ragnarsson (78'), G. Ingason (82' o.g.), B. Gudjonsson (90+3'), G. Martin (90+4').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Garðabær.